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Odds & betting

22 stories on this topic, newest first.

UFC 333 title odds open as pick-'em; Volkanovski floats Gaethje swan song

Oddsmakers installed Alexander Volkanovski and Movsar Evloev at -110 apiece for their featherweight title headliner on Oct. 24 in Abu Dhabi, while bantamweight champion Petr Yan opened a -180 favorite over Merab Dvalishvili in their trilogy co-main. Volkanovski, defending against the unbeaten 20-0 Evloev, floated a lightweight-title "super fight" against Justin Gaethje as a mutual send-off should he win. Jorge Masvidal warned that Evloev's relentless grappling and grip could wear the 38-year-old champion down over five rounds.

Why it matters: A rare pick-'em title fight and a championship trilogy anchor one of the year's deepest cards, with Volkanovski already angling for a third crack at 155 pounds.

Pereira vs. Pavlovich confirmed for UFC 335 — and Poatan opens as the underdog

The UFC confirmed Alex Pereira's heavyweight stay, booking him against No. 2 contender Sergei Pavlovich in a five-round UFC 335 co-main event on Dec. 12 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Oddsmakers immediately opened Pereira as a slight underdog, around +105 to Pavlovich's -120. Pereira is coming off a second-round TKO loss to Ciryl Gane in his heavyweight debut but refuses to drop back to light heavyweight, while Pavlovich (21-3) has won three straight, most recently a 39-second knockout of Tallison Teixeira — one of Pereira's own sparring partners. The card is headlined by Charles Oliveira's BMF title defense against Diego Lopes and also features Bo Nickal vs. Joe Pyfer.

Why it matters: A win likely lines Pereira up with the Gane–Hokit winner and keeps his bid to become the UFC's first three-division champion alive; a second straight heavyweight knockout loss would quietly end it.

Silva favored over Wang Cong for vacant flyweight title on a panned UFC 332

UFC 332 lands in Salt Lake City on Oct. 3 with Natalia Silva a -195 favorite over Wang Cong (+165) for the vacant women's flyweight title, opened up after Valentina Shevchenko was forced out with injury. It is the first full numbered card to simulcast on CBS and Paramount+, with Jon Anik, Daniel Cormier and Joe Rogan on the call and bantamweight Payton Talbott the card's biggest favorite at -575 over former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo. MMA Fighting's own roundtable savaged the event as arguably 'the worst numbered UFC event in modern history,' with the panel arguing Wang leapfrogged more deserving contenders to get here.

Why it matters: Crowning an 'undisputed' champion while Shevchenko still holds the division's real claim underscores how thin both the belt and the numbered-PPV label have become in the Paramount era.

Tsarukyan says Gaethje is ducking him — and Vegas agrees he's the problem

After brutally knocking out Mauricio Ruffy, Arman Tsarukyan pressed his lightweight title-shot case, accusing champion Justin Gaethje of avoiding him and predicting Gaethje will either chase an Ilia Topuria rematch or price himself out at '$15 million or I'm retired.' Tsarukyan, on a six-fight win streak and healthy enough to fight in December, said Gaethje must fight him or 'leave the title.' Oddsmakers opened him a massive -450 favorite over the champ.

Why it matters: Tsarukyan has cleared the division twice over yet keeps getting passed; whether the UFC rewards its clear No. 1 contender or the bigger-money Topuria rematch will define 155 pounds into 2027.

Adesanya backs Ruffy upset over Tsarukyan; N3on joins the corner

The UFC 331 co-main between No. 2 lightweight Arman Tsarukyan and No. 7 Mauricio Ruffy carries obvious title implications, though Dana White won't call it a No. 1 contender fight. Israel Adesanya, who trained around Ruffy at Volkanovski's camp, picked a third-round Ruffy knockout, citing footwork if he stays off the fence. Ruffy says he's built a "champion mentality," while Tsarukyan will add streamer N3on to his corner alongside Khamzat Chimaev over a $50,000 bet, and joked he can't promise he won't get into it with Ruffy at the faceoff.

Why it matters: The winner is the obvious front-runner for the next lightweight shot, but Ilia Topuria's looming return could leave whoever comes out of five rounds waiting on the sidelines.

Gaethje talks up UFC 331 co-main, hopes Ruffy 'hits Arman really hard'

Lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, expected to sit out the rest of 2026, previewed the UFC 331 co-main between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy on Sept. 19, calling it Ruffy's 'first ultimate test' and saying he'd love to see Tsarukyan 'get hit really hard.' Gaethje again cast doubt on Tsarukyan's UFC 311 back injury, suggesting he couldn't make weight. Eddie Alvarez, meanwhile, argued Ruffy's tighter boxing makes him a worse stylistic matchup for Gaethje than Tsarukyan. Tsarukyan is roughly a -325 favorite.

Why it matters: The winner is the presumptive next challenger for Gaethje's belt, so his open rooting against Tsarukyan doubles as a preview of his likely 2027 title defense.

Noche UFC 4 odds land: Silva a big favorite over replacement Delgado

Betting lines opened for Saturday's Noche UFC 4 at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona. Jean Silva (-430) headlines against Arizona's Jose Delgado (+335), who stepped in on a few weeks' notice for the injured former interim champ Yair Rodriguez and has been trading barbs — Silva says Delgado's trash talk will end with him 'sleeping on the mat.' On the undercard, former flyweight champ Alexa Grasso is a +205 underdog against Manon Fiorot, Brandon Moreno is a near pick-'em with Joseph Morales, and Dan Ige debuts at bantamweight against ranked David Martinez.

Why it matters: Silva is one win from a featherweight title eliminator behind Volkanovski-Evloev, while the Fiorot-Grasso winner is squarely in the 125-pound title mix now that Shevchenko is out.

Fighters split on Makhachev-Garry as UFC 330 week opens

Predictions poured in ahead of Saturday's welterweight title main event in Philadelphia. Tom Aspinall called Garry a bad stylistic matchup for the champion but still backed Makhachev to win a decision, while Carlos Prates — the only man to beat Garry inside the Octagon... no. Correction: while Carlos Prates, whom Garry has beaten, picked the Irishman for a decision upset despite Makhachev sitting a -335 favorite. In the co-main, challenger Gillian Robertson leaned into building tension with Mackenzie Dern, predicting a third-round TKO and declaring 'the belt's already mine.'

Why it matters: Buildup only, but it frames how wide the read is on Makhachev's first welterweight defense against a rangy, awkward challenger.

UFC 331 opening odds: Van-Pantoja 2 a pick'em, Tsarukyan a big favorite

Early lines are out for the Sept. 19 card in Los Angeles. The flyweight title rematch is nearly even, with champion Joshua Van (-115) against Alexandre Pantoja (-105), whose first meeting ended on a sub-30-second injury stoppage. In the co-main, Arman Tsarukyan opened -400 over Mauricio Ruffy (+315) in a title eliminator. Robelis Despaigne (-475) is favored over Tai Tuivasa, and Gable Steveson is a -1800 chalk versus Sean Sharaf.

Why it matters: Tsarukyan is again installed as a heavy favorite in a No. 1-contender fight, a reminder that the most deserving lightweight still can't get booked for the belt.

Salkilld headlines UFC Vegas 120 against Gamrot in top-10 gatekeeper test

Undefeated-in-the-UFC Australian Quillan Salkilld (12-1, 5-0 UFC) headlines Saturday's APEX card against No. 8 lightweight Mateusz Gamrot (26-4), a fight the surging prospect personally called for after knocking out Beneil Dariush. Salkilld is a slight favorite and a win would push him into the top 10; Gamrot brushed off the hype, promising 'crazy conditioning.' The co-main pits returning Billy Quarantillo, up at lightweight after 19 months out, against Diego Ferreira.

Why it matters: Gamrot is the division's toughest gatekeeper — beating him is the difference between prospect and contender for Salkilld at 155 pounds.

Noche UFC 4 made official: Rodriguez vs. Silva set, Silva a big favorite

The UFC formally announced Yair Rodriguez vs. Jean Silva as the Sept. 12 Noche UFC 4 main event in Glendale, Arizona, with a full card now attached — Manon Fiorot vs. Alexa Grasso, Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales, Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Curtis Blaydes and more. Silva (17-3) opened as a sizable favorite (around -280) over the returning Rodriguez (20-5), who fights for the first time since his April 2025 win over Patricio Pitbull and makes his first Noche appearance. Silva headlined last year's Noche, losing to Diego Lopes.

Why it matters: A five-round featherweight main event on Mexican Independence Day weekend carries title-shot stakes, with Silva looking to force his way back into the Volkanovski conversation.

Oliveira and Dana White talk up Garry's upset chances at UFC 330

Ahead of Islam Makhachev's first welterweight defense against Ian Machado Garry on Aug. 15 in Philadelphia, Charles Oliveira — who helped build Garry's camp at Chute Boxe — says the Irishman has a 'very good chance,' citing his fight IQ and discipline. Dana White pointed to Garry's takedown defense as a genuine threat, while backup Michael Morales gave him 'zero chance.' Garry remains a +260 underdog to Makhachev's -320.

Why it matters: Makhachev can break Anderson Silva's UFC win-streak record, and the debate centers on the one skill — takedown defense — that could actually derail him.

Rodriguez returns from a Mexican prison to headline UFC's Serbia debut

The UFC stages its first-ever event in Serbia on Saturday, Aug. 1 at Belgrade Arena, headlined by a welterweight bout between hometown finisher Uros Medic and Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez, released this April after eight months in a Mexican jail on a marijuana possession charge, rides a three-fight streak and calls the headline slot 'a dream come true.' Medic (13-3) has stopped all three of his recent opponents, most recently blitzing Geoff Neal in 79 seconds, and is a heavy favorite; he's already eyeing a future clash with Carlos Prates. Jan Blachowicz vs. short-notice Navajo Stirling co-headlines.

Why it matters: It's a landmark first card in a new market wrapped around one of the sport's more improbable comeback stories, with Medic trying to prove he's more than a hometown highlight.

Khabib calls Ian Machado Garry a 'difficult' puzzle for Makhachev at UFC 330

Ahead of Islam Makhachev's first welterweight title defense against Ian Machado Garry on Aug. 15 in Philadelphia, coach Khabib Nurmagomedov flagged the challenger's height (6-foot-3-plus), reach and range striking as a stylistic problem his camp has never faced, adding that the nearly-35 Makhachev will have to chase him down. PFL champion Usman Nurmagomedov is reportedly mimicking Garry in camp. Makhachev remains a sizeable favorite as he seeks a record 17th straight UFC win, breaking a tie with Anderson Silva.

Why it matters: Even Makhachev's own corner is publicly framing this as a live underdog spot, which is unusual respect for a challenger against the pound-for-pound No. 1.

McGregor, Holloway make weight as celebrity bets pour in

Conor McGregor (170.5) and Max Holloway (170) both weighed in Friday and had an intense final faceoff ahead of Saturday's UFC 329 welterweight main event in Las Vegas, McGregor's first fight since breaking his leg in July 2021. Drake put $1 million on McGregor at +285, while Jake Paul placed a $500,000 McGregor-Pimblett parlay on his own app; Holloway laughed off Drake's backing, invoking the rapper's betting curse.

Why it matters: Manufactured hype aside, McGregor's return after five years is the biggest box-office event of the year, and it finally gets settled in the cage Saturday night.

Pimblett-Saint-Denis co-main a near pick'em with title stakes

The UFC 329 co-main event pits Paddy Pimblett (23-4) against Benoit Saint-Denis (17-3, 1 NC) in a three-round lightweight bout. Pimblett is rebuilding after his interim title loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 324 in January, while Saint-Denis rides a four-fight finish streak that includes stoppages of Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush and Mauricio Ruffy. Saint-Denis opened around -155 but the line has tightened toward a coin flip during fight week. Both fighters said they wanted five rounds; Saint-Denis denied he was the reason the bout stayed at three.

Why it matters: The winner slots into a crowded top five at 155 pounds and could fast-track back into the title conversation, while a Pimblett win keeps his mooted feud with Ilia Topuria alive.

McGregor makes his return against Holloway atop UFC 329

Conor McGregor headlines UFC 329 on July 11 at T-Mobile Arena against Max Holloway in a welterweight rematch of their 2013 featherweight bout, marking McGregor's first fight since the leg break against Dustin Poirier at UFC 264 in July 2021. McGregor dismissed Holloway's stated plan to drag him into deep waters as disrespectful. The fighter class is split on the pick: Dricus du Plessis and Sean O'Malley back a McGregor knockout, while Sherdog's Sean Sheehan and others favor a fresher Holloway to finish the rusty Irishman at 170 pounds.

Why it matters: McGregor's five-year layoff at age 37 makes this the most scrutinized comeback in years, and a welterweight rematch against a durable, high-volume Holloway is a stern test of whether the sport's biggest draw still belongs.

Gable Steveson debuts as biggest betting favorite in UFC history

Olympic gold medalist and two-time NCAA heavyweight champion Gable Steveson (3-0, all first-round KOs) makes his UFC debut against Elisha Ellison on the UFC 329 prelims, opening as high as -4000 — described as the biggest favorite in promotional history. Steveson vowed to beat Ellison 'in the worst way possible' and credited coach Jon Jones, who has a one-third say in his camp at Jackson Wink. He also floated an eventual heavyweight collision with training partner Josh Hokit, whom he expects to drop to 205.

Why it matters: A wide-open heavyweight division badly needs new blood, and the UFC is betting heavily that an elite wrestling pedigree plus Jon Jones's tutelage can fast-track Steveson the way Hokit rose from the undercard to a White House main card.

Odds tell the story: Holloway favored as McGregor's line steams

Despite losing the 2013 fight, Holloway enters UFC 329 as roughly a -227 favorite over McGregor (+192), reflecting the Irishman's five years out. But McGregor's number has shortened sharply — from as wide as +420 (Holloway -550) at open to under +200 — with money chasing his early-finish threat. The card's biggest lock is Olympic gold medalist Gable Steveson (-3300) in his heavyweight debut against Elisha Ellison; Benoit Saint-Denis, Adrian Yanez and Lone'er Kavanagh are also favored in notable spots.

Why it matters: The line movement without a flip captures the whole fight: bettors respect McGregor's power in the first two rounds but still trust Holloway's activity and cardio over 25 minutes.

Umar Nurmagomedov meets Song Yadong atop UFC Shanghai

Umar Nurmagomedov (20-1) will headline UFC Shanghai on Aug. 29 against No. 5-ranked bantamweight Song Yadong (23-9-1, 1 NC), the promotion's first mainland China event in a year. Both men are coming off wins over Deiveson Figueiredo — Song by submission, Nurmagomedov by decision. Umar opened as a lopsided -700 favorite. The bout was rebooked after Umar's original opponent David Martinez withdrew injured.

Why it matters: Nurmagomedov's only loss remains his 2025 title defeat to Merab Dvalishvili, and a win here likely earns him another crack — while an upset would finally push the inconsistent Song into the title picture in a home-country main event.

UFC Baku closes out the schedule with Fiziev vs. Torres

The UFC's final card before a weeklong break lands Saturday, June 27, at Baku Crystal Hall, with Azerbaijan's Rafael Fiziev meeting surging Mexican finisher Manuel Torres in the lightweight main event. Fiziev is looking to rebound from a TKO loss to Mauricio Ruffy, while Torres (5-1 in the UFC) leads the division in knockdowns per 15 minutes. The co-main pits strikers Shara Magomedov and Michel Pereira, with Asu Almabayev, Nazim Sadykhov and Ikram Aliskerov also featured.

Why it matters: A pick-em main event in a hostile home crowd is a real test of whether Fiziev's stock has slipped and whether Torres is a genuine 155-pound contender.

Du Plessis returns against Usman in UFC Oklahoma City headliner, opens big favorite

Former middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis (23-3) makes his first walk since losing the belt to Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 319, headlining UFC Oklahoma City against ex-welterweight king Kamaru Usman (21-4) on July 18 at the Paycom Center, streaming on Paramount+. Du Plessis opened as a heavy favorite, around -350 to Usman's +285, and said he chose the grappling-heavy matchup over Nassourdine Imavov specifically to showcase his improved wrestling, claiming the UFC had to 'convince' Usman to sign. Usman is coming off a June 2025 decision win over Joaquin Buckley after a long layoff.

Why it matters: It's a high-stakes 185-pound crossroads: a win keeps Du Plessis next in line for a title rematch, while a 21-4 Usman moving back up could reorder a division now ruled by Chimaev.